That didn't last long!

They'd got me hooked, and then it all fell apart!

Call that a bribe?

What do you do if you're asked by a corrupt official to pay a bribe?

Well, if you're an Indian who's cheesed off paying bribes, you might just hand them a zero rupee note and watch them back down.

That's fantastic!

Trams - changed my mind

I've always opposed the tram project in Edinburgh. I like light rail as an urban transport system but it should be separated from road traffic and, more importantly, pedestrians. I've criticised the poor planning (we were told that the city centre utility diversion work would be completed by August 2008 - it's still going on - and that all of the utility diversion work would be finished by February 2009), questioned the costing (TIE indicated a "final contract cost" of £508 million on 24th April 2008 - up from £438 million the year before), worried about the disinformation (we were told that tram track would be laid in Leith Walk in October 2008), and prodded the schonky business case (well, at least I've read it).

Given that two trams will now be painted with pictures of Ian Rankin and Alexander Graham Bell, though, what can I say? I'm sold on it - bring on the trams!

Just keep them off the roads.

Maybe use some of the miles of underused railway track around the city.

Mind how you go!

Unassailable SNP lead

The Sun's daily tracker has the SNP having soared past Labour and into an unassailable lead of three points (27 to 24) with a huge sample size of 136. On a uniform result right across the country that would give the SNP 59 seats!

Mind how you go.

Farewell to a friend

Billy Wolfe has died. Like thousands of other members of the SNP I regarded Billy as a friend and a good companion on the road to independence. The tributes will pile up on the party's website. He was one of those grand old stagers of the party who was an ever-present at conferences and campaigns, gently eccentric and always ready with a smile and a bit of encouragement for all of us. One of the first pieces of mail received by newly elected SNP Parliamentarians would be a wee card from Billy with his congratulations and best wishes for the term ahead, his incredible generosity of spirit always lifted people who came into contact with him and he was always delighted to share a joke and a laugh.

He's credited with turning the SNP into the modern party it is today, reforming our organisation and our campaigning methods, underpinning our policy platform with a socially democratic ethos, driving our cause forward.

His activism and his energy seemed not to know any limits, as well as turning up at elections when he was well into his 80s, he was a determined campaigner for nuclear disarmament, part of the deep-seated opposition to nuclear weapons that is part of the lifeblood of the SNP and created SNPCND. Billy's CND membership led him into as many 'interesting' positions as his SNP membership, he was one of those who went to Cape Wrath to protest against the US Navy using it for shelling practice and there's a tale told about Billy and Ian Hamilton QC at Faslane sitting on the road side by side and complaining about the police refusing to manhandle them out of the way with the refrain of "what's an old man got to do to get arrested around here?" and complaints that they'd paid their taxes all their life and should have the right to get lifted. A formidable pairing, you might say.

He was an environmental campaigner as well, leading the charge to protect Scotland for future generations, and I believe he was a prime mover in setting up the Eilean Mor MacCormick Trust to look after the SNP's island which is at the mouth of Loch Sween and home to a 12th century Chapel dedicated to St Cormac. In the same spirit in which Billy did everything else, visitors are always welcome on the island:

Billy was a man who believed in peace, in love and in gentleness. He served in the Second World War and campaigned for peace thereafter. An excellent bloke, he'll be missed by a lot of us but we'll still be cheered by the memory of him. His family have lost a husband and father, we've lost a friend, and Scotland has lost a patriot but Billy was the kind of person who would rather you celebrated his life than mourned his death. There's a lot to celebrate.

So long Billy.

Lib Dem king-makers? Nope.

The fuss and flutter of speculation and feverish rubbish from commentators in the run-up to the election really getting started has led some people to speculate that the Lib Dems will be in a position of strength after the election and ready to decide who becomes Prime Minister. I've come to the conclusion that it's all havers, and the reason I've come to that conclusion is simple - the Lib Dems are going to lose a lot of seats at this election, they won't pick up any in Scotland, and they'll do rather badly elsewhere too (maybe picking up one in Newcastle).

They're consistently fourth in Scotland in opinion polls, third across England, miles behind the Conservatives in the South of England, they're showing up fourth in Wales and are falling further and further behind and I think they face losing seats. They don't have a leader with the charisma of Charlie Kennedy or Paddy Ashdown or even David Owen any more, having apparently been left with the runt of the litter in Nick Clegg.

Looking at opinion polls, adding in 2005 results (boundary changes coming in England), adding my excellent judgement and terrible prejudice to that, totting up what's what, I don't think they can take a single seat that they don't currently hold, I think they'll get squeezed everywhere, and I think that this is what will happen to the seats they currently hold (some nominally after boundary changes):

Scotland:
Inverness Nairn Badenoch & Strathspey - lose

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - lose heavily

East Dunbartonshire - lose

Gordon - lose (taken by a blogger)

Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk - lose

Argyll & Bute - lose

Dunfermline & West Fife - might hold, might lose. Willie works hard and that might be enough to save him (it'd be lost otherwise)

Edinburgh West - weakened, a possible loss and will only be saved, if it is, because of the battles going on in nearby seats (they have a terrible candidate here) - and it goes in 2011 if they do save it this time.
NE Fife - hold
Orkney & Shetland - hold
Ross, Skye & Lochaber - hold
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - hold

Furth of Scotland:
Mid Dorset & North Poole - lose to Con
Taunton Deane - lose to Con
Solihull - lose to Con

Southport - lose to Con

Cornwall North - shrinking majority, lose to Con

Westmorland & Lonsdale - lose to Con
Bath - lose to Con
Romsey & Southampton North - lose to Con
Camborne & Redruth - lose to Con (Labour nominally second but have faded here)
Portsmouth South - about a 3,300 majority about to be lost to Con.
Somerton & Frome - lose to Con
Oxford West & Abingdon - boundary chanegs remove the university, Evan Harris is looking for a new job - lose to Con.
Carshalton & Wallington - a battle, but probably lose to Con

Teignbridge - the home of Buckfast is abolished, but Boris Johnston's dad got to 6,000 votes away last time, the new seat will be lost to Con.

Eastleigh - lose to Con

Torbay - lose to Con

Brecon & Radnorshire - lose to Con

Cheadle - lose to Con

Richmond Park - Jenny Tongue's old seat, never safe, lose to Con

Cheltenham - rapidly shrinking majority - lose to Con.

North Devon - Harvey's majority was lower in 2005 than in 1997 - lose to Con

Hornsey & Wood Green - lose to Lab
Birmingham Yardley - lose to Lab
Chesterfield - lose to Lab
Cambridge - won't be able tohold onto the 4,000 majority; lose to Lab

Manchester Withington - lose to Lab

Leeds North West - lose to Lab

Rochdale - the cowboys are going to ride on out, lose to Lab

Brent Central - lose to Lab

Ceredigion - lose to Plaid

Thornbury and Yate - hold
Bristol West - hold
Cardiff Central - hold

Berwick Upon Tweed - hold

South East Cornwall - hold

Sutton & Cheam - hold

Twickenham - hold

Sheffield Hallam - hold

Kingston & Surbiton - hold

St Ives - hold

Lewes - hold

Harrogate & Knaresborough - bit of a boundary change but probably hold

Bermondsey & Old Southwark - a straight choice, hold.

Hereford - disappears Lib Dem should take new seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire

North Norfolk - hold

Yeovil - hold

Meon Valley (successor seat to Mark Oaten's Winchester - Lib Dem hold

Montgomeryshire - hold

Colchester - hold

Hazel Grove - hold

Truro & St Austell - splits in two, I've no idea how that'll pan out.

So, that's between 4 and 6 seats in Scotland and maybe 22 elsewhere. It's going to be a sore election for the Lib Dems, very sore. Far from being king-makers, questions about their viability will be asked. With no policy platform, having tossed it aside for this election, and no real purpose in politics, why would that party stay together?

Of course, I might be wrong. Mind how you go.

Labouring the point

The Scottish Government announced today that it was dumping the proposal to allow local authorities to advertise online instead of in local newspapers. Labour leader Iain Gray said:

"This decision is a victory for democracy and a humiliating climbdown for the SNP. John Swinney's proposals to allow local councils to put public notices online instead of in newspapers were undemocratic and I am glad that they have now been dropped.
"Large numbers of people in Scotland don't have access to the internet and there is a real danger that putting public notices online would have led to important decisions being taken without proper scrutiny."

The proposal was introduced in 2006 by the last bunch who were in power. That'd be Labour then!

Mind how you go.