Tuesday, 14 April 2009

Opinion polling

As we hear rumours of Gordon Brown considering an election this year, I wondered what may count against it in Brown's mind, so I looked at the most recent Yougov poll and thought "what if you remove the Scottish figures?" I reckon it gives you these figures:

Conservative 43%
Labour 33%
Lib Dem 16%
Others 7%

I may be wrong but I think, even allowing for Labour's over-representation in Scotland and disallowing the seats that we're about to take from them, that those results would give Cameron a working majority.

I think Brown will lose whenever he calls the election - too many mistakes made, too much of a mess left - but I think he's also hanging on and thinking "events, dear boy, events".

Ah, Callaghan

2 comments:

  1. So what has the SNP got planned for when the Westminster cabinet comes up to Glasgow, now that GB and his attack dogs are on the ropes?

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  2. Ach, I don't believe that there is any large-scale organised campaign to rig the postal votes - I don't think that Labour is capable of organising anything so large these days for one thing.

    I couldn't possibly reveal what's planned for the UK cabinet, but proposals are always welcome. Tea and crumpet, perhaps?

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